BITCOIN: This CYCLE-ENDING Signal Happens EVERY TIME (it's good news)

Jason Pizzino

Introduction to the 18.6 Year Cycle and Market Analysis

The host, Jason Pizzino, discusses the 18.6 year cycle and its impact on various markets, including Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, the stock market, and real estate. He notes that the cycle is nearing its peak and that this could lead to increased inflation, which might be beneficial for certain assets.

US Dollar Cycle Analysis

  • The US dollar has been in a strong trend since August and has broken out, hitting 109.
  • Historically, the first year of the cycle tends to show strong gains, but the cycle analysis suggests a potential decline after the initial two months.
  • The US dollar's strength could lead to weakness in commodities, but recently, commodities and other assets have increased despite the strong dollar.

Energy and Inflation

  • There are signs of inflation returning, with breakouts in energies.
  • A short-term breakout in oil, with a key level to watch at $72, and heating oil potentially closing above $2.35.
  • Natural gas has been doing well since its lows in early 2024.
  • These movements could be early signs of inflation, which might be good for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in the short term.

Stock Market Analysis

  • The S&P 500's market sentiment is resetting, moving from extreme greed to fear.
  • The NASDAQ is in a similar position, with a need for a close above 21,600 to continue grinding higher.
  • Support levels for the stock markets are intact, but there are signs of potential decline.
  • Micro Strategy, a significant player in the crypto space, has broken an important 50% level, which could indicate weakness.

Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Analysis

  • The IRS has delayed crypto tax reporting until 2026, giving the industry more time to adapt to regulatory concerns.
  • Daily exchange volume for Bitcoin has been collapsing, which is unusual for this time of year.
  • Google Trends show an increase in searches for "crypto" and "Bitcoin," indicating ongoing interest.
  • The fear and greed index is at 74, still in greed, which might require a reset for sustainable market growth.
  • Bitcoin's price chart shows resistance at $100,000, with a need to break past this level for further gains.

USDT Dominance and Market Trends

  • USDT dominance has been a useful indicator for market trends, similar to patterns seen in 2021.
  • A breakdown in USDT dominance could signal more money flowing into Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.
  • The current rejection at the 50% level of previous significant moves suggests that the market is not ready to move upwards significantly yet.

Altcoins Analysis

  • ETH/USD is showing good support at the 50% level and is forming higher lows, indicating a relatively strong position.
  • Solana has pumped up, breaking past the $20.20 level, with $21.11 as the next key level.
  • Sui is holding strong, not breaking down from previous lows and putting in higher lows.
  • XRP has closed dead on the 50% level at $2.40, still early days and potentially consolidating above $1.90.

Conclusion

The analysis concludes with a note on the importance of following chart trends rather than narratives about specific quarters being green. The host believes that while quarter one might not follow traditional patterns, the market will eventually move upwards, and it's crucial to follow the trend indicated by the charts.