Bitcoin [BTC]: The Signal Crypto Has Been Waiting For IS HERE!

Michael Pizzino

Market Overview

The masses have left the crypto market, with almost $1 billion coming out of spot ETFs and daily volume dropping by 60% to $80 billion per day.

Ethereum

  • Holding above $3,100 is crucial for a potential re-accumulation phase.
  • A break above $3,500 to $3,600 would be a positive sign, possibly indicating the low is in.
  • Currently, Ethereum is seeing higher lows but lacks significant momentum and volatility.

Solana

  • Needs to break above its trend line and 50% level at around $220 for a sustainable move upwards.
  • Until then, any price action below $220 has a high chance of failing and putting in another lower top.
  • Short-term resistance at $200 is a key level to watch for a potential breakout.

Pepe

  • Has broken out above a key resistance level and is holding above the breakout zone, a positive sign.
  • Needs to continue making higher lows to confirm the low is in.
  • A warning sign would be short-term closes and lower highs beneath its current trend line.

Dogecoin

  • Holding above the 50% level at 28 cents, with consecutive higher lows.
  • Watching for a potential fourth-time breakdown on the daily chart, which, if fails, could lead to a false break and a move upwards.
  • Needs to regain the breakdown zone above 36.5 cents for a stronger market structure.

Bitcoin

  • Currently testing a significant trend line and speed line from the previous rally.
  • A fourth-time breakdown potential is in play but considered less reliable due to uneven lows.
  • Holding above $94,000 is positive, but breaking above $100,000 is crucial for sustained bullish momentum.
  • Resistance at $100,000 is a high probability rejection area.

Macro Signals

  • Spot ETF flows have seen consecutive weeks of outflows, typically a bearish signal.
  • Exchange volume has dropped significantly, a concerning signal for continued bullish momentum.
  • The volume chart shows a huge amount of money being flushed out of cryptocurrency, which could indicate a weak rally.

Crypto Cycle

  • Believed to be within a Wave 4, suggesting one final leg upwards before the end of the bull market.
  • Wave count could be wrong, and the top might already be in, but macro breakdown signals are needed to confirm this.
  • The current sideways move could be part of Wave 4, following the guideline of alternation, which suggests a slower, sideways correction after a sharp Wave 2.