Why Crypto Could Be Repeating 2017’s Mega Bull Market

Lark Davis

Introduction to the 2017 Bull Run Comparison

The speaker discusses the possibility of the current cryptocurrency market cycle repeating the gains of the 2017 bull run. They note that while history doesn't repeat itself, it often rhymes, and understanding the similarities between the current cycle and the 2017 cycle can help in predicting price levels and the duration of the current bull run.

The 2017 Bull Run

  • Started with Bitcoin trading around $600 after its second halving in July 2016.
  • Topped out in December 2017 at $19,600, a 3,100% price increase over 1.5 years.

Current Market Cycle

  • If the current cycle matches the 2017 cycle in terms of timing, the bull run should peak around Q3 to Q4 of this year.
  • Currently, we're just past the halfway point of the bull run, as measured from the last halving.
  • Matching the 2017 bull run in terms of percentage price gains would result in an unrealistic $2 million Bitcoin price by the end of the year.

Correlation with 2017 and 2021 Cycles

  • The current price action closely follows the 2017 cycle, with a 0.92% correlation.
  • Bitcoin is up about 550% since the 2022 cycle lows, similar to the percentage increase in the same timeframe from its 2015 cycle low.
  • The cycles are correlated even when starting from the previous cycle lows.

Macro Economic Factors

  • The correlation between Bitcoin's price and central bank balance sheets, global M2 divided by global GDP, and global M2's year-over-year percentage changes are examined.
  • These correlations suggest that once the macroeconomic factors turn favorable (e.g., quantitative easing starting after quantitative tightening ends), Bitcoin could see a significant price increase.

Political Factors

  • The political climate, with Trump back as president, could contribute to a more explosive price environment for crypto, similar to 2017 but potentially more favorable due to a proclaimed pro-crypto stance.

Price Projections

  • If the current cycle returns match those of 2021, Bitcoin could reach between $315,000 and $415,000 by the end of the year.
  • The speaker's target is around $250,000, considering the Fibonacci lines and other factors.
  • Betting markets on Polly Market and Kalshi also suggest high price targets for Bitcoin.

Conclusion

  • The speaker emphasizes that while the current cycle closely tracks the 2017 cycle, it's unlikely to match the exact percentage gains.
  • A $2 million Bitcoin price this cycle is deemed unrealistic, but the speaker believes in a million-dollar Bitcoin in the future, potentially in the 2030s.