THE MOST IMPORTANT BITCOIN CHART

Introduction to the Four-Year Cycle Spiral Chart

The speaker introduces the four-year cycle spiral chart for Bitcoin, created by the Rational Root on Twitter. This chart displays time moving around in a circle, with each ring representing a four-year cycle.

Understanding the Chart

• Each quadrant on the chart represents one year.
• The price increases by an order of magnitude with each ring ($10, $100, $1,000, etc.).
• Historical analysis shows that bottoms and tops in the Bitcoin market tend to happen close together when viewed in this circular pattern.

Historical Pattern Observation

• The first halving occurred around 2013, followed by all-time highs, then a market bottom about a year later.
• This pattern repeats, with the market hitting new all-time highs about every four years (2017, 2021).
• The time spent at all-time highs is typically around a year, followed by a year to reach the bottom, and then another year before the next halving.

Predictions for the Future

• Based on the pattern, if the cycle repeats, we might see new all-time highs throughout 2025.
• The peak of the market could be towards the later half of 2025, potentially earlier than in the last cycle.
• Summer months are usually dull, so hitting an all-time high then is less likely; spring and fall/winter are typically better times for crypto.

Market Uncertainty and Strategy

• The speaker notes that markets don't always do what's expected, and selling at the perfect time is unlikely.
• A strategy could be to dollar-cost average out of the market over the next nine months, positioning oneself based on the cycle chart.
• The possibility of a "super cycle" or changes in narrative (like nation-states buying Bitcoin) could elongate or alter the cycle.

Conclusion

• The four-year cycle spiral chart offers a tool for understanding Bitcoin's market cycles.
• Investors should do their own due diligence, considering this chart among other factors for making decisions.