Bitcoin Cycle Top Is Coming But Not Until…

Bitcoin Market Cycles and Indicators

The speaker discusses Bitcoin market cycles and various indicators that suggest we are approximately mid-cycle. The indicators include:

• Global M2 Money Supply: Historically, Bitcoin market cycles have been closely correlated to the global M2 money supply. As long as the M2 supply keeps going up, there is still fuel left in the tank to drive the market up.
• DXY (US Dollar Index): If the dollar strengthens, Bitcoin goes down, and vice versa. The DXY is currently nearing a run-up after the election, and most analysts expect a dollar index decline.
• Copper and Gold Prices: The ratio between copper and gold prices has been closely correlated to Bitcoin peak prices. The current indicator suggests that we are gearing up for a massive markup phase.
• ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI): There is a correlation between the PMI and Bitcoin cycle peaks. The PMI is still moving sideways and hasn't started to peak yet.
• Pie Cycle Top Indicator: This indicator has predicted the top of previous cycles and is currently not showing a top signal.
• RSI Bollinger Band Percentage Phases: This chart divides the cycle into five phases and suggests that we are currently in the fourth phase, with the cycle top expected in September or October.

Market Outlook

Based on the indicators, the speaker believes that we have not yet reached the cycle top and are approximately mid-cycle. The market owes us nothing, but the speaker personally believes that the market will give us at least one more nice push into April or May, potentially running as far as late 2025 or even 2026. However, it's essential to stay vigilant and watch for news events, market sentiment, and chart movements, as these indicators are not infallible.