Has Ethereum Gone Home Yet?

Benjamin Cowen

Ethereum Market Analysis

The speaker discusses the current state of the Ethereum market, comparing it to past cycles. They analyze the ETH/BTC ratio, highlighting that it has reached a low point, similar to 2019.

Key Points

  • Ethereum has reached its lower logarithmic regression trend line, which could be a sign of a potential bottom.
  • The speaker believes that ETH/BTC will continue to bleed until quantitative tightening ends.
  • They compare the current market cycle to 2016 and 2019, noting similarities in the charts.
  • The speaker discusses the importance of the ETH/USD chart and its relationship to the ETH/BTC ratio.

Potential Outcomes

  • If Bitcoin goes up, Ethereum will likely follow, but will still bleed against Bitcoin.
  • If Ethereum breaks down further, it could lead to a more convincing bottom for ETH/BTC.
  • The speaker notes that the supply of ETH has reached its pre-merge level, which could be a sign of a capitulation event for ETH/BTC.

Conclusion

The speaker concludes that the Ethereum market is complex and that there are various potential outcomes. They emphasize the importance of remaining objective and not having a bias in the market. Ultimately, the speaker believes that Ethereum's value will be determined by the overall health of the economy and the cryptocurrency market.