Bitcoin [BTC]: It's NOT Over...

Michael Pizzino

Market Overview

The last 24 hours have seen significant liquidations, with hundreds of thousands of accounts and billions of dollars affected. However, zooming out, the market has not changed much over the last three months, with macro trends remaining unaffected.

Macro Trends

  • The true altcoin market cap, excluding Bitcoin and stablecoins, has had a wild 24 hours, dumping close to 30% and then recovering most of those losses.
  • This correction in altcoins is not the worst seen, with a 44% drop from cycle highs to the current correction low, compared to a 50% correction in the last cycle.
  • Bitcoin dominance saw a spike followed by a rejection as funds rotated from Bitcoin to altcoins.

Bitcoin Dominance and Altcoin Season

  • The potential for an altcoin season is indicated by a spike top in Bitcoin dominance.
  • For an altcoin season to occur, we need to see breaks of support and trend changes in Bitcoin dominance.
  • A continued weakness beneath 65.5% in Bitcoin dominance and a break back above $750 billion in the true Bitcoin dominance chart would be positive indicators for an altcoin season.

Total Market Cap

  • The total market cap saw a massive liquidity event but has come back to retest the previous all-time high.
  • Technically, we are still in a downtrend, and changes in trend above $3.3 trillion are needed to confirm the end of the correction.

Bitcoin Analysis

  • On the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin is not doing much, and we need to see breakouts of major peaks or troughs to change the macro picture.
  • The price point to watch beneath the market is around $90,000. A break beneath this with closed and lower highs would indicate the market is doing something different.

Market Data

  • Inflows and outflows of the Bitcoin spot ETF can be inverse indicators. Large spikes in inflows can be a sell signal, and large outflows can mark a pivot point low.
  • The recent session saw a large amount of outflows, which could be a good sign for a snapback in price.

Liquidation Data

  • The last 24 hours saw over $2 billion in liquidations, but this might not be the full picture, with estimates suggesting total liquidations could be around $8 to $10 billion.

Long/Short Ratio and Volume

  • The long/short ratio has snapped back to equilibrium, which can indicate a genuine breakout if we remain around the 50-50 ratio.
  • The 24-hour volume has dropped but is still at a healthy level, and daily exchange volume is trying to tick up.

Bitcoin on Daily and Four-Hour Timeframes

  • Trends remain down, but it's positive to see a break back above the halfway point at $99,500.
  • To confirm a low and potential for fresh cycle highs, we need to see closers and higher lows above the 50% point.
  • On the four-hour timeframe, a clear rejection away from the pivot point at over $102,000 was seen, with a line in the sand beneath the market at $99,500.