Bitcoin Drops Below $100k

Benjamin Cowen

Introduction to Bitcoin and Market Analysis

The speaker discusses Bitcoin's recent drop below $100k and the potential market trends.

Analysis of Bitcoin's Price Movement

  • Bitcoin has had a correction, but it's still doing relatively well.
  • The speaker mentions that in January of the last two post-halving years (2017 and 2021), there was a correction of around 30-40%.
  • A 30% correction would put Bitcoin's price at around $75k.
  • The speaker notes that Bitcoin is still tracking the 2016 cycle relatively closely.

Upcoming Events and Their Potential Impact

  • The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for January 29th, where the Fed will discuss interest rates and quantitative tightening.
  • The speaker believes that the Fed will likely keep interest rates constant.
  • The potential end of quantitative tightening could impact Bitcoin's price.

Historical Patterns and Cycles

  • The speaker notes that Bitcoin often makes a move up, stalls, and then corrects before making another move.
  • They mention that in 2017, Bitcoin corrected in January and then continued to rise.
  • The speaker also notes that the market can correct itself when it gets "too frothy."

Potential Outcomes and Scenarios

  • The speaker outlines the possibility of a left-translated cycle, where the peak occurs earlier in the market cycle.
  • They note that if Bitcoin fails to rally in February or March, it could be a sign of a left-translated cycle.
  • The speaker also mentions the potential for a 30-50% drop in Bitcoin's price.

Conclusion and Final Thoughts

  • The speaker emphasizes the importance of considering different scenarios and possibilities.
  • They note that it's not obvious whether the current cycle is a right-translated or left-translated cycle.
  • The speaker encourages viewers to stay informed and consider different perspectives.