Bitcoin: Decision Time is Next Week

Benjamin Cowen

Introduction to Bitcoin's Decision Time

The host believes that Bitcoin is approaching a critical decision time, likely to occur next week, based on historical patterns where Bitcoin tends to move near range highs before labor market data releases.

Market Dynamics and Bitcoin's Movement

  • The host notes that markets don't need a reason to go up; they can rise due to consistent investment and positive trends.
  • Bitcoin specifically does not need a reason to go up but needs a reason to go down, often related to inflation or unemployment rates.
  • Historical analysis shows Bitcoin performing well when unemployment rates are not aggressively moving up, using windows of opportunity to increase in value.

Unemployment Rate and Its Impact

  • The upcoming labor market data release next week is crucial, with the host predicting that if the unemployment rate comes in at 4.1% or 4.2%, it might not significantly impact Bitcoin.
  • Higher rates, such as 4.3% or above, could potentially spook the market and affect Bitcoin negatively.

Bitcoin's Potential Moves

  • The host references a one-year ROI chart, suggesting that for Bitcoin to maintain its current trajectory, it would need to start moving up in February, following last year's pattern.
  • A potential range for Bitcoin's next move is estimated to be between $120 to $140/$150 if it follows last year's pattern.

Investment Strategy and Market Outlook

  • The host advises against assuming this time is different and suggests letting the market dictate its direction rather than trying to predict it.
  • Staying Bitcoin-heavy has been a successful strategy for the host, given Bitcoin's consistent outperformance of the alt-coin market.
  • The possibility of a left-translated cycle is discussed, where an earlier peak than expected could occur, but this might not necessarily be a cause for concern due to potential later macro lower highs.

Conclusion and Next Steps

  • The decision on Bitcoin's next move is anticipated to be made after the labor market data release next week.
  • The host will continue to monitor the situation and provide updates, emphasizing the importance of watching the unemployment rate and its potential impact on Bitcoin's direction.