Bitcoin [BTC]: The FINAL PHASE Is Here.

Michael Pizzino

Market Analysis

The current crypto market is likened to "summertime" where prices tend to go over the top, but it's also a time to think about the turning of the season. Historically, cycle tops have happened in "autumn".

Key Points

  • The total market cap is sitting on top of the $3.47 trillion level, which is the halfway point from the short-term correction.
  • Bitcoin is showing strength on the weekly timeframe with macro trends remaining up.
  • The market is stuck in a $20,000 range beneath the all-time high, with a potential for choppy market action.
  • Low volume rallies are a cause for concern, with the current rally being unsustainable.

Market Structure

  • The major support zone for Bitcoin is around $90,000.
  • The intermediate level for Bitcoin is around $106,500.
  • The total market cap needs to print higher lows above the $3.47 trillion level to confirm a shift in momentum.

Volume Analysis

  • The 24-hour volume is down by 20% at $167 billion.
  • The long/short ratio is around 50-50.
  • Liquidations are extremely low.
  • The overall volume is a cause for concern, with low volume rallies being unsustainable.

Crypto Seasons

  • The crypto market operates in seasons, with the current season being "summertime".
  • Cycle tops have historically happened in "autumn".
  • The narrative of the US Strategic Reserve could potentially send the market over the top.

Conclusion

The market is currently in the final phase of the bull market, but it's essential to remain balanced and consider invalidation points. The crypto seasons and market structure suggest that there is still more time to go before the cycle tops out.