Bitcoin Social Risk

Introduction to Social Risk

The social risk metric is a measure of retail interest in Bitcoin, tracking metrics such as new subscribers to crypto YouTube channels, views, and followers to crypto analysts. It ranges from 0 (historically low risk) to 1 (historically high risk).

Historical Context

In 2021, the social risk metric topped out at the first peak, indicating a divergence between social interest and price. The metric has not reached the same levels as in 2021, suggesting that retail interest has not fully returned.

Current State

The social risk metric has recently spiked to the 0.4-0.5 range, similar to April 2024, but has not surpassed this level. YouTube views for crypto channels have also spiked occasionally, but have not sustained levels above 2 million views per day.

Comparison to Previous Cycles

In 2021, crypto YouTube channels saw 4 million views per day, whereas current views are lower. The 30-day moving average of this metric spent more time at higher levels in 2021, indicating a more durable trend.

Implications

The lack of sustained retail interest may be contributing to Bitcoin's dominance not dropping as expected. For Bitcoin dominance to drop significantly, retail interest needs to surge and sustain.

Conclusion

The social risk metric provides insight into retail interest in Bitcoin. While there have been occasional spikes, the metric has not reached the same levels as in 2021, suggesting that retail interest has not fully returned.