Bitcoin Dominance in 2025

The speaker discusses the importance of Bitcoin dominance in understanding the Cryptoverse. Bitcoin dominance is the key to unlocking the secrets of the Cryptoverse, and it is crucial to track it over several years to appreciate its importance.

Past Predictions

In 2022, the speaker predicted that Bitcoin dominance would go to 60%. This prediction was based on the idea that in any cycle, at some point, a bubble forms with altcoins against Bitcoin, and by the end of 2021, dominance was unable to take out the low of 2017 and early 2018.

Reasons for 60% Target

The speaker explains that the 60% target was also based on the fact that last cycle, Bitcoin dominance retraced to the 61.8% Fibonacci level. The speaker believes that quantitative tightening never ending is one reason why altcoins have struggled against Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Dominance in Post-Halving Years

In post-halving years, Bitcoin dominance tends to go down. The speaker notes that in 2017 and 2021, dominance dropped significantly. However, the speaker also notes that last cycle, the high for Bitcoin dominance was set in the post-halving year.

Advanced Decline Index (ADI)

The speaker introduces the Advanced Decline Index (ADI), which measures the number of assets advancing versus declining. The ADI for the top 100 cryptocurrencies has been putting in lower highs, indicating a struggling market.

Quantitative Tightening and QE

The speaker discusses the impact of quantitative tightening and quantitative easing (QE) on the market. If QE returns, it could lead to a rally in altcoins, but if quantitative tightening continues, Bitcoin dominance may remain high.

All Bitcoin Pairs

The speaker looks at all Bitcoin pairs and notes that they have not gone to the range low, which could be a reason why they are struggling. The speaker wonders if all Bitcoin pairs could still go to the range low, even as late as the end of the year.

Ethereum and Altcoins

The speaker discusses Ethereum and other altcoins, noting that they have been struggling against Bitcoin. The speaker believes that if QE returns, altcoins could outperform Bitcoin, but if quantitative tightening continues, Bitcoin dominance may remain high.

Conclusion

The speaker concludes that it is essential to be open-minded about Bitcoin dominance in 2025 and not be deterministic. The speaker notes that dominance could go up or down and that it is crucial to adjust views based on market conditions. The speaker also reminds viewers to secure profits and convert them to Satoshis or US dollars to minimize risk.