There Is No Altseason For 2025. [PROOF]

Crypto Banter

Introduction to the Topic

The speaker discusses the current state of the cryptocurrency market, focusing on the concept of "old season" (also known as altcoin season), where altcoins outperform Bitcoin. The market is currently experiencing a range-bound pattern, with prices not responding to good news.

Indicators for Altcoin Season

The speaker examines various indicators to determine if an altcoin season is imminent:

  • Altcoin Index: Measures the performance of the top 100 coins relative to Bitcoin. Historically, when 70-75% of these coins outperform Bitcoin over 90 days, it indicates an altcoin season.
  • Total3 (Total Market Cap excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) / Bitcoin Price: This ratio indicates whether altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin.
  • Bitcoin Dominance: A drop in Bitcoin's market dominance often precedes an altcoin season.

Current Market Analysis

  • Lack of Response to News: Despite positive news, the market is not responding, indicating fatigue.
  • Range Pattern: The market has been in a range pattern since November 18th, similar to the 7-month range in 2022.
  • Impact of the Bank of Japan's Interest Rate Decision: The speaker believes the market has already priced in the expected interest rate increase, reducing its potential impact.

Historical Context of Altcoin Seasons

  • Previous Cycles: Altcoin seasons typically start around 240 days after a Bitcoin halving, characterized by a significant increase in the price of altcoins.
  • Ethereum's Performance: Often leads the altcoin season with substantial gains.

Challenges to Traditional Altcoin Season

  • Institutional Investment in Bitcoin: The influx of institutional money into Bitcoin, driven by investors like Michael Saylor and ETFs, may hinder altcoins' ability to outperform Bitcoin.
  • Token Emissions and Liquidity: The ease of launching new tokens and the resulting token emissions could dilute liquidity, making it harder for any single token to gain significant traction.
  • Fed's Balance Sheet: The lack of increase in the Fed's balance sheet indicates less global liquidity, a key factor in initiating an altcoin season.

Strategies for the Current Market

  • Investing in Bitcoin: As a safer bet, given the institutional investment trend.
  • Learning to Trade: To capitalize on market volatility, with a recommendation to allocate only a small portion of the portfolio to trading.
  • Playing Narratives: Understanding and moving with emerging narratives in the market, such as AI agents, to potentially profit from short-term trends.

Conclusion

The speaker concludes that while individual altcoins may perform well, the traditional altcoin season where the entire altcoin market significantly outperforms Bitcoin might not occur due to the current market structure and lack of global liquidity. Instead, investors should consider learning to trade and playing narratives to navigate the market effectively.