Bitcoin [BTC]: MAJOR Signal For Crypto & OFFICIAL TRUMP WARNING!
Michael Pizzino
Market Analysis
The current market is experiencing high volatility, with spikes in liquidations and record-high volumes. This has led to significant pumps and dumps, which are typically seen before major tops and reversals.
Key Signals
- Daily Exchange Volume: Has broken old lows, currently at around $95 billion for the 7-day moving average. Maintaining this level is crucial for sustained rallies.
- Liquidations: Very high, with over $1 billion in liquidations 48 hours ago and around $800 million in the last 24 hours. This is concerning, as similar patterns were seen before the previous all-time high and led to a lengthy correction.
- Fear and Greed Index: In extreme greed, which can persist but may also be a precursor to a larger sell-off if new all-time highs are printed with lower highs on the fear and greed index.
- Spot ETF Flows: Saw excessive inflows on January 17th, similar to what was seen before a pivot point top and sell-off in the past.
Chart Analysis
- Total Market Cap: Did not print a new high when Bitcoin did, which can be a warning sign of a major lower top. However, it's still holding above areas of technical strength.
- Bitcoin Weekly Time Frame: Printed a new all-time high but sold off aggressively. Needs to support above a certain trend line to remain in a bullish position.
- Daily Chart: Trends are up, but there's a concern about the rapidity of the recent rally. The $99,000 level is crucial; a breakdown with lower highs could lead to a larger correction.
- 4-Hour Time Frame: No trend confluence, still holding above the support zone. A breakdown beneath certain levels could lead to a lower high and continuation lower.
Other Cryptocurrencies
- Ethereum: Stuck in a range, needs a higher low above $3,500-$3,600 for confidence in higher prices.
- Solana: Printed a classic thrust pattern, typically a top signal. Expecting lower prices, but a failed signal could mean new all-time highs sooner.
- XRP: Printed new all-time highs, unable to hold above $320. Still relatively healthy, but changes in trend beneath $290-$320 could lead to a larger sell-off.
- Cardano: Hanging in there, needs a high or low above/beneath trend lines for direction.
- Official Trump: In trouble, trends down across multiple time frames. Needs a breakout back above $39 with a higher low for a stance change.
Conclusion
The market is at a critical point, with both bullish and bearish signals present. The maintenance of the $99,000 level for Bitcoin and the overall market's ability to sustain higher volumes are key to determining the next move. While there are concerns of a potential top, there are also indicators suggesting the bull market may not be over yet.