ETH / BTC

The speaker discusses the current state of Ethereum (ETH) and Bitcoin (BTC), focusing on their valuation and potential future movements.

Current Level: ETH Bitcoin has reached 0.03, a level considered relatively low by the speaker.
Historical Context: The speaker had predicted ETH Bitcoin could bottom out between 0.03 and 0.04, based on past patterns and the asset's behavior during quantitative easing phases.
Technical Analysis: The speaker analyzes ETH Bitcoin's movement, discussing higher lows, lower highs, and the potential for a bottom, considering the impact of quantitative easing (QE) and quantitative tightening (QT).

Difficulty in Analysis: The speaker finds ETHUSD analysis challenging, especially in predicting its movement in relation to USD.
Higher Low Structure: The speaker discusses the higher low structure in ETHUSD and how it resembles patterns seen in other assets, like Tesla, where after forming a macro higher low, the asset went on to make new highs.
Influence of Quantitative Tightening: The speaker suggests that the lack of QE and the continuation of QT could be reasons for ETHUSD's weakness.

Quantitative Easing (QE): The potential return of QE is discussed as a critical factor that could influence ETH and BTC prices. Historically, QE has led to increases in crypto prices.
Bank of Japan's Interest Rates: The speaker mentions the Bank of Japan's interest rate decisions and their potential impact on ETHUSD, citing past instances where rate hikes were followed by ETHUSD capitulation.
S&P 500 Patterns: A pattern similar to ETHUSD's is observed in the S&P 500 from 1990, suggesting a potential future drop before a significant rise.

ETH Bitcoin Attractiveness: The speaker believes ETH Bitcoin is at a relatively attractive valuation, considering its historical movements and the potential for future growth.
ETHUSD Challenges: ETHUSD's analysis is more complex, with the speaker acknowledging mistakes in predicting its path but suggesting that a drop to a lower logarithmic regression trend line could be an accumulation phase.
Future Outlook: The speaker is cautious, noting that while ETH Bitcoin seems relatively low, QE's return could significantly impact both ETH and BTC, potentially leading to higher valuations over time.