XRP Risk Metric
Benjamin Cowen
XRP Risk Metric Analysis
Introduction
The video discusses XRP's risk metric, which is currently at 0.871, indicating an elevated risk level. The speaker analyzes the historical data of XRP's Bitcoin pair to understand the potential outcomes.
Key Points
- XRP's risk metric is getting close to the 0.9 to 1 risk band, which has historically been associated with sizable rallies.
- The speaker identifies double bottoms on XRP's Bitcoin pair as a potential indicator of rallies.
- XRP has spent only 80 days in the 0.8 to 0.9 risk span and 35 days in the 0.9 to 1 risk span throughout its history.
- The speaker notes that when XRP reaches the highest risk band, it tends to only stay there for a short period, typically around 1-3 weeks.
Historical Context
- The speaker compares the current cycle to the 2016-2017 cycle, highlighting similarities between the two.
- XRP's Bitcoin valuation is considered more important than its USD valuation.
Potential Outcomes
- If XRP reaches the 0.9 to 1 risk band, it may lead to a cooling-off period before potentially another rally.
- The next milestone for XRP would be to break above the 4,000-4,300 Satoshi level, which would correspond to a historical low in August 2018.
Conclusion
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding XRP's risk metric and historical data to make informed decisions.
- The video aims to provide an update on XRP's current situation and potential outcomes, rather than making price predictions.