Bitcoin [BTC]: Something's Not Quite Right With Crypto...

Michael Pizzino

Introduction to Crypto Market Analysis

The speaker expects higher prices for crypto and is looking for signs that the correction is over. They use macro analysis to identify trends and predict future movements.

True Bitcoin Dominance and Altcoin Market Cap

The speaker uses two charts to analyze the crypto market:

  • True Bitcoin dominance (removing stable coins)
  • True Altcoin market cap (removing Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stable coins) These charts provide a picture of the Altcoin space and help identify when money will flow back into Altcoins.

Current Market Situation

  • The cycle high for Bitcoin dominance was on November 4th, followed by a sharp sell-off.
  • The price is currently above the 61-61.5% level, with higher lows and indecision.
  • The true Altcoin market cap is below the trend line and 50% level, with a price point of around $840 billion.
  • A breakout above this level, combined with a breakdown in Bitcoin dominance, would indicate that Altcoins will outperform Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Analysis

  • The weekly trend is down, but higher time frame trends are still up.
  • The current correction is the most severe in the bull market, with a faster decline than previous corrections.
  • The speaker is looking for a break above the 50% level and trend line (around $99-100,000) to confirm a low and potential bull run.

Market Data

  • Liquidation data shows low levels of liquidations, which is not ideal for marking pivot points.
  • Volume data shows a significant drop in the last 24 hours, which is concerning for the short-term trend.
  • Sentiment has flipped to the long side, but the differential is not huge.

Altcoin and Meme Coin Analysis

  • Ethereum: back above the bull market 50% level, but needs to break above $3,500-3,600 to confirm a low.
  • Solana: needs to break above $220 to confirm a low.
  • XRP: remains one of the stronger markets, with all trends up and higher lows.
  • Cardano: printing higher lows, with a breakaway zone above $1.10.
  • Dogecoin: trying to regain the breakdown zone at 36 cents, with a potential retest of the 40 cent resistance area.
  • Pepe: in a weaker position, with all trends down and major resistance overhead.