Crypto Alert: A Crash Incoming!?

Market Update

The speaker discusses the current market situation, focusing on the correlation between global money supply and Bitcoin. They believe that the contraction in global money supply is not actually happening, as M2 is increasing.

Bitcoin and Crypto

The speaker thinks that Bitcoin and crypto will not contract in the next few weeks, but instead, will continue to grow. They mention that a real pullback for a bull market would be down to the $89 level, but are not sure if it will reach that point.

2025 Market

The speaker predicts that 2025 will be a bull market, with a lot of liquidity and potentially a weaker dollar. This could lead to an "all-coin season" where riskier assets perform well.

Government Spending and GDP

The speaker discusses the impact of government spending cuts on GDP, citing that the government makes up 35% of US GDP. They believe that cutting government spending could lead to a massive drag on GDP and inflation, potentially causing a huge recession.

Currency Debasement

The speaker explains that the Fed will likely print more money to stimulate the economy, leading to currency debasement. They believe that Bitcoin is a good hedge against this, as it has outperformed the balance sheet of the central bank.

Investment Strategy

The speaker recommends investing in strong assets like Bitcoin, as it is the "trade of our generation". They suggest that investors should have a bulk of their portfolio in Bitcoin, as it is the largest and most diversified index in the world.

Alt Season

The speaker predicts that 2025 will be an "alt season" where alternative coins outperform Bitcoin. However, they recommend investing in an index like the crypto cap index to get broad exposure to the market.

Fed Rate Cuts

The speaker believes that the Fed will cut rates next year to refinance the treasury, despite saying that they won't. This could lead to a bull market for Bitcoin, followed by a bear market 6-12 months later.