Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band

Benjamin Cowen

Bitcoin Market Update

The bull market support band for Bitcoin has continued to rise, with the 20-week estimate at $81,000 and the 21-week EMA at $84,000.

Key Points

  • Bitcoin's price is still above both the 20-week estimate and the 21-week EMA
  • The lowest price seen in December and January is around $90,000
  • Comparisons to last year's market show a similar pattern, with a potential sideways movement for a month or two
  • The 100-day moving average is around $86,000, which could be a potential support level

Market Comparison

  • Comparisons to prior post-halving years show a potential 30% correction in January
  • Bitcoin's performance in 2017 and 2021 is discussed, with a potential drop to the 100-day moving average

Risk Management

  • The importance of managing risk is emphasized, with a plan to buy and sell based on risk levels
  • The unpredictability of the market is highlighted, with no guarantees of future performance

Potential Outcomes

  • A potential outcome is a drop to the 100-day moving average, with a potential bounce or further drop
  • A retest of the breakout point is also possible, but not guaranteed
  • The impact of the 10-year yield on the market is discussed, with a potential headwind for risk assets if it continues to rally.