Raoul Pal: You Have No Idea What's Coming with Cryptocurrency in 2025

Altcoin Daily

Summary of Transcript

Introduction to ISM and Business Cycle

  • The ISM (Institute for Supply Management) survey is a key indicator of the US economy's state
  • A reading above 50 indicates growth, while below 50 indicates contraction
  • The ISM manufacturing index measures demand for products by tracking ordering activity at US factories

Relationship Between ISM and Bitcoin

  • The ISM survey is a reliable indicator for determining Bitcoin's tops
  • Historically, when the ISM peaks, it signals a top in crypto due to changing liquidity
  • The current ISM reading is below 50, indicating the economy is still in contraction

Bitcoin's Business Cycle

  • Bitcoin's creation in 2009 coincided with a severe contraction in the business cycle
  • The business cycle typically lasts four years, but the current cycle has not yet peaked
  • The ISM reading suggests that the top in crypto may not occur until Q1 2026

Importance of Understanding Demand and Supply

  • Both supply and demand are crucial in determining an asset's price
  • The ISM survey provides insight into demand appetite, while the Bitcoin halving affects supply
  • Understanding these factors can give investors an edge in crypto investing

Review of Key Metrics

  • The speaker recommends tracking the following charts:
    • Puel multiple
    • Bitcoin's MVRV Z score
    • Bitcoin dominance chart
  • These charts can help investors determine the stage of the Bitcoin cycle and make informed decisions

Comparison to Historical Cycles

  • The current market is following a similar pattern to the 2016-2017 cycle
  • The speaker believes that buying Bitcoin today is similar to buying it at the start of 2017
  • Historical trends suggest that the cycle is not yet over, and investors should zoom out to understand the perspective

Institutional Investment and Market Trends

  • Over 185,000 Bitcoin have left major exchanges in the last 60 days, indicating a decrease in selling interest
  • Institutional investors, such as US Bitcoin ETFs, are buying Bitcoin regardless of short-term price fluctuations
  • The speaker believes that there is still room for growth in institutional investment, similar to the gold ETF market in the early 2000s.