Bitcoin: Pre-Labor Market Release

Introduction to Labor Market Release

The market is anticipating the release of labor market data, including average hourly earnings, unemployment rate, and total non-farm employment level.

• The labor market data released so far this week has been mostly better than expected.
• This has led to a "good news is bad news" scenario, where positive data causes the long end of the yield curve to rally, negatively impacting Bitcoin and risk assets.

Impact on Bitcoin

• Bitcoin has struggled despite good labor market data, potentially due to the 10-year yield rally and a strong dollar.
• The 10-year yield has broken out similarly to last year, which led to a struggle for Bitcoin.
• Bitcoin is currently at a prior support level, which it has bounced off several times in the past.

Technical Analysis

• The daily RSI could be forming a double bottom.
• Bitcoin's support level is around $90,000, with the 100-day moving average at approximately $85,000.
• A potential scenario is a bounce followed by a sweep of the lows and a tag of the 100-day moving average before another bounce.

Labor Market Release Expectations

• The market is expecting an unemployment rate of 4.2%.
• A low unemployment rate might not necessarily lead to a Bitcoin rally if the 10-year yield continues to rise.
• The market may be irrational, and the reaction to the labor market data may not be as expected.

Conclusion

• The labor market release tomorrow will be closely watched, with the unemployment rate being a key focus.
• The reaction to the data will depend on various factors, including the 10-year yield and the overall market sentiment.
• It's essential to consider the risks and potential outcomes, including a bounce followed by a sweep of the lows or a break of the 100-day moving average.