Bitcoin Early Post-Halving Year Correction?

Introduction to Bitcoin Correction

The speaker discusses the typical correction that Bitcoin experiences in January of post-halving years.

Historical Context

• In 2017, Bitcoin had a 35% correction in January.
• In 2021, Bitcoin had a 31-32% correction in January.
• In 2023, Bitcoin had several corrections, including a 20% drop and a 34% drop.

Current Market Analysis

• Bitcoin is currently experiencing a correction, potentially started in December.
• The correction is around 12-13% from the high, which is considered relatively small.
• The speaker mentions that the first correction after an impulsive move higher could come around January.

Comparison to Previous Cycles

• The current cycle is compared to the 2016 cycle, which also had a correction around this time.
• The speaker notes that the 2016 cycle and the current cycle look similar.

Factors Affecting Bitcoin Price

• The 10-year yield is mentioned as a potential factor affecting Bitcoin's price.
• The speaker notes that when the 10-year yield breaks out, it can cause Bitcoin to correct.

Possible Outcomes

• The speaker mentions that Bitcoin could continue to correct, potentially testing the bull market support band.
• A more optimistic scenario is that Bitcoin will go sideways and then move higher.
• The speaker also notes that there is a possibility of a deeper drop, where Bitcoin backtests the breakout.

Conclusion

• The speaker concludes that the current correction is potentially a typical January correction in a post-halving year.
• The speaker advises being open-minded to different outcomes and notes that volatility can pick up in post-halving years.