Why Did Bitcoin Drop Today?

Benjamin Cowen

Introduction to the Video

The video discusses Bitcoin and its relationship with the long end of the yield curve. The speaker explains that the price action is king and that narrative follows price. They also mention that the yield curve can affect risk assets like Bitcoin.

The Yield Curve and Bitcoin

The speaker notes that when the 10-year yield goes up, it can take the wind out of the sales of risk assets like Bitcoin. They explain that this is because the market is worried about inflation, which can lead to higher interest rates and reduce the attractiveness of risk assets.

Labor Market Data and Inflation

The speaker discusses labor market data, including job openings, hires, and layoffs. They note that the labor market is loosening up, but the market is still worried about inflation. They explain that the ISM services prices paid index had a big move up, which could contribute to inflation.

The Federal Reserve and Interest Rates

The speaker talks about the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates and how it affects the market. They note that the Fed is trying to prevent a recession, but the market is still worried about inflation.

Market Volatility and Predictions

The speaker expects a lot of volatility in the market over the next few days as more labor market data comes in. They note that the 10-year yield could top out in Q1 2025 and then drop, which could be good for risk assets like Bitcoin.

Conclusion

The speaker summarizes their views on the market, noting that the yield curve, labor market data, and inflation are all important factors to consider. They encourage viewers to subscribe to their channel and check out their premium content.

Key Points

  • The yield curve can affect risk assets like Bitcoin
  • The labor market is loosening up, but the market is still worried about inflation
  • The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates affects the market
  • The 10-year yield could top out in Q1 2025 and then drop
  • Market volatility is expected over the next few days as more labor market data comes in