Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band

Introduction to Bitcoin's Bull Market Support Band

The bull market support band is a helpful tool for identifying major up trends and downtrends in Bitcoin's price.

Bitcoin's Price Movement

Bitcoin has been above its bull market support band since January 2023, with two exceptions: Q3 2023 and Q3 2024, when it briefly went below the band. The current bull market support band ranges from $75K to $80K.

Short-Term Bubble Risk

The short-term bubble risk is measured by the extension of Bitcoin's price above its 20-week moving average. When Bitcoin reaches 30-40% above this average, it usually stalls or corrects.

10-Year Yield and Bitcoin's Price

The 10-year yield is breaking out, which is causing a pullback in the market. Historically, Bitcoin has gotten a pullback in January of post-having years, with corrections ranging from 30-35%.

USDT Dominance

USDT dominance is fighting seasonality and the 10-year yield. If USDT dominance gets rejected by its bull market support band, it would be good for Bitcoin USD. If it breaks through, it would be bad for Bitcoin USD.

Stable Coins Supply Ratio Oscillator (SSRO)

The SSRO is a mouthful, but it's an important indicator. It spiked in October and November last year, then slowly went down, and then Bitcoin consolidated. The SSRO is currently at 1.03 and getting closer to the 0.553 level, which was reached in late January last year.

Conclusion

The market is confused due to the double bottom in USDT dominance and the 10-year yield going up. To lift the waltz for Bitcoin, keep an eye on the 10-year yield. If it goes down, Bitcoin might go up, but if it goes down due to recession fears, Bitcoin might sell off.