Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation

Benjamin Cowen

Introduction to Dubious Speculation on Bitcoin

The speaker discusses the current state of Bitcoin, noting that it has surpassed $100k. They mention that this pattern has been seen before, with Bitcoin bouncing off lows for a while before making a move.

Historical Context and Patterns

The speaker notes that:

  • In 2020, Bitcoin rallied in November and stalled in December.
  • A similar pattern is observed this year, with a rally in November and a stall in December.
  • The speaker suggests that Bitcoin might repeat the pattern from last year, where it rallied in early to mid-January.

Potential Outcomes Based on Unemployment Rate

The speaker discusses the potential impact of the unemployment rate on Bitcoin:

  • If the unemployment rate is equal to or less than 4.2%, it could be good for Bitcoin.
  • If the unemployment rate is 4.3%, Bitcoin might chop around until February.
  • If the unemployment rate is greater than 4.3%, Bitcoin could experience a correction.

The Dollar and 10-Year Yield

The speaker talks about the dollar and 10-year yield:

  • They believe the dollar will top out in Q1 2025, similar to what happened in 2017.
  • The 10-year yield will likely top out in Q1 2025 as well.
  • A loosening labor market could lead to the Fed ending quantitative tightening and starting quantitative easing.

Dubious Speculation: QQQ ETF Launch and Bitcoin

The speaker draws a comparison between the QQQ ETF launch in 1999 and Bitcoin's ETF launch:

  • The QQQ ETF rallied from 48 to 120 in 54 weeks.
  • If Bitcoin follows a similar pattern, it could reach $120k by January 20th.
  • However, the speaker notes that this is highly speculative and unlikely to repeat exactly.

Market Risks and Patterns

The speaker discusses potential market risks and patterns:

  • The biggest risk for Bitcoin is a correction in the stock market.
  • The S&P 500 divided by M2 money supply has not taken out its high from 1998.
  • The speaker notes a potential higher low structure in the S&P 500 divided by the unemployment rate squared.
  • They also discuss the S&P 500 divided by M2 money supply, noting a potential wedge pattern.

Conclusion

The speaker summarizes their thoughts:

  • The dollar and 10-year yield will likely top out this quarter.
  • The labor market could loosen up, leading to a potential knee-jerk reaction in the S&P 500.
  • The speaker encourages viewers to subscribe to the channel and check out the sale on Into the Cryptroverse Premium.