Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band

Bitcoin Update and Bull Market Support Band

The Bull Market Support Band has moved higher, now ranging from $79K to $84K. Bitcoin's current move is similar to what happened in December of last year, with a potential spike up and then a sell-off.

Comparison to Previous Years

The year-to-date ROI of Bitcoin in 2023 and 2024 are almost identical, making it reasonable to draw comparisons between the two years. The weekly RSI of Bitcoin found support at 45 in Q3 of 2023 and Q3 of 2024, which could potentially happen again in Q3 of 2025.

Labor Market Influence

The labor market release can impact Bitcoin's price, with a higher unemployment rate potentially causing Bitcoin to struggle. A slower move up in the unemployment rate does not affect Bitcoin, but a quicker move up can cause Bitcoin to care.

Bull Market Support Band as First Line of Defense

The Bull Market Support Band is the first line of defense for the bulls in a bull market. If Bitcoin were to drop, it would be expected to find support at the Bull Market Support Band or even before reaching it.

Time-Based Capitulation

Time-based capitulation is as important as price-based capitulation, where the people who are going to sell have already sold, and the market consolidates for a couple of months.

Market Cycle ROI

Bitcoin's market cycle ROI is similar to where it normally is around this time, with a potential spike up and then a sell-off, similar to what happened in 2016-2017 and last year.