BITCOIN: The BREAKOUT Signal NO ONE is Ready For (Watch ASAP)

Jason Pizzino

Introduction to Market Analysis

The speaker discusses the importance of following market signals to make informed investment decisions. They mention that missing these signals can result in missing out on 90% of the market move.

Post-US Presidential Election Years Analysis

  • Post-US presidential election years have a reputation for not being good years, with more recessions in the first year of the presidential cycle compared to the fourth year.
  • Since 1901, these years have shown a gain 58% of the time, which is not a strong statistical basis for investment decisions.
  • However, nine of the last ten post-election years have seen the S&P 500 show an annual gain, suggesting a potential for growth but also a risk of reversion to the mean.

Monthly Performance in Post-Election Years

  • The speaker analyzes the favorable and unfavorable months in post-election years, noting that:
    • Favorable months (where the market closes higher) occur 70% of the time.
    • Unfavorable months (where the market closes lower) are almost a 50-50 split.
  • The averages for favorable months are about 9% gain, with a median of 7%.

Trading vs. Holding

  • The speaker questions whether it's worth trading based on monthly performance, given that buying and holding for the year results in a similar return (about 7% for the whole market and a median of 9%).
  • They suggest that the effort to time the market may not be justified by the potential gains.

USDT Dominance and Crypto Market

  • The USDT dominance is in a downtrend, with lower highs and lows, indicating potential upside for the rest of the crypto market.
  • However, it's still in a trading range between 4.6% and 3.7%, making it a choppy mess for both Bitcoin and altcoins.

Bitcoin Analysis

  • Bitcoin has been in a consolidation phase, with the price remaining relatively stable over the past six weeks.
  • The speaker mentions the importance of the $100,000 level as a psychological barrier and a 50% level for Bitcoin.
  • A breakdown below this level could lead to further downside, potentially to $95,000 or $91,000.

Altcoin Analysis

  • The speaker looks at various altcoins, including ETH, Solana, Suey, and XRP, analyzing their performance against Bitcoin and USD.
  • For ETH, the key levels to watch are the 4% and 4.6% levels in the ETH/BTC pairing.
  • Solana needs to close above 220,000 to 230,000 Satoshis to show strength.
  • Suey has broken to new all-time highs but needs to hold above these levels to confirm strength.
  • XRP is struggling with the 50% level at $2.40.

Trading Strategies and Risk Management

  • The speaker emphasizes the importance of saving money and not getting into the market at the wrong time.
  • They discuss the use of trading rules, such as the 50% level, to make informed decisions and avoid significant losses.
  • The example of Sigma, a meme coin, is used to illustrate the potential for big bounces in consolidating phases and the importance of assessing risk and reward.

Conclusion

The speaker concludes by reiterating the importance of understanding market signals, managing emotions, and using trading rules to navigate the volatile crypto and stock markets.